March Investment Strategy (U.S. & China): Updating the Battle Map now that S&P E-Mini loses the 200 Day Moving Avg and China undergoes 20% correction
March Investment Strategy (Released Ahead Of Schedule for Members) - Public Preview Provided
Note to Readers: Given the contextual nature of markets, I will periodically release certain research notes ahead of schedule. As members can see, I always provide more strategy content than the formal 2 Bi-Weekly notes for everyone’s benefit.
This note will serve to be my March 1st Half Strategy note. I will have more follow-ups as markets present me the opportunity to comment on them. For this reason, I will make my notes more concise in nature so that I can provide more updates on an ongoing basis. My Bi-Weekly Market Internals Dashboard and Monthly Macro Slide Deck will be updated on March 1st.
Please make sure that you understand my style is “Intermediate-Term Investing” (a methodology that targets 3-6 months for ideas) before joining my Community. Please click here to learn what that is.
I’m happy to share my thinking with the good folks - just remember - these newsletters are my personal thoughts only and highlight my own plans and isn’t financial advice.
Members,
Welcome back to another exciting Strategy update as we enter March. I want to start off this note by sharing 2 Tweets that I’ve shared on Twitter in the first half of February.
At some point later in 2023, I hope these 2 Tweets will have made a tremendous positive impact on you.
If you follow me on Twitter and Instagram, you’ll soon notice that my Tweets and Instagram Stories are almost always going to convey my views of market context in a very timely manner.
It whispers at my positioning/opinions that I have provided first in our Private Community.
Tweet 1: The Rugpull May Have Started at 4150 SPX
Tweet 2: Most People Will Not Be Able to Hold Their Gains
Let’s recap.
Throughout the first 53 days of trading in 2023, what were my core views? The links below contain my premium research with paywalls removed for you to read.
In my January note, I discussed that I was looking for a “reasonably stable start to the month, followed by looming Danger”. Keep in mind, this was coming off of a very bearish December before the January rally that we saw.
By February 9th, I discussed that while “markets appear strong on the surface, market internals tell a completely different story.” This was during the few weeks when the media outlets had seduced the public that we went from a Hard Landing to No Landing narrative in a matter of days.
On February 16th, I reiterated my stance that the “markets were trading on Hopes & Dreams”, perhaps strengthening my tone that a large sentiment shift could happen at any moment.
In the meantime, I opined that China was expensive with BABA (as a proxy) at 120 in mid January as hedge funds piled in. More on China below.
On U.S. markets, we made clear my stance that SPX was prone to a large pullback with the index at 4150. More on my thinking for SPX below.
Discussed re-inflation themes CF Industries and ZIM and a recovery in the Dollar UUP ETF
Also discussed several high-beta names had quite a bit of downside potential (discussed here)
I have a process to follow - and whether the market agrees/disagrees with me, I will stand my position until evidence points to the contrary. In regards to how I personally position, I simply follow the same exact research as shared with the good folks here (many times in which I in fact made it freely available to the public).
I am interested in sharing a strong process and risk management principles. I believe that over time, a strong process has enduring value because it has repeatable qualities.
In this March Note, I will discuss the following:
Very concise macro/geopolitical commentary on U.S. and China
A re-drawn battle map of the S&P 500 (key levels that I’m looking at now that a new range has formed)
A re-drawn battle map of the China KWEB Internet ETF (key considerations that I’m thinking about in light of the geopolitical tension)
Selective Names & Themes that are on my radar as we progress through 2023
My fundamental and macro views from previous reports are still in play.
There was never going to be a soft landing here in the U.S., and I plan to fade this narrative every single time it appears again at the right levels.
In this note, I will show you precisely what considerations I am looking at and what themes we may be able to take advantage of in today’s macro environment.