Welcome to 2H 2022: We're entering Stage 2 of the Bear Market as a Team, as a Unit, as a Community.
Press the ❤️ button if you are ready to take on the challenges in 2H 2022 alongside with me as your Captain. I intend to use 2H 2022 to bring the next Big Idea to my Community, like I did with China
Note: My highly anticipated July Investment Strategy Report is now released. Out of fairness, my July research and outlook is reserved for my members inside my Community. But once again, out of tremendous goodwill to my Community at large, I am sharing my June Monthly Strategy Slide deck (published on June 1st) so that you fully understand what my views were in June and you can judge for yourself if you vibe with my research style. I ask that you share my email newsletter to anyone and everyone who cares about markets. We have 4100+ friends on the email list. And I want more people to benefit from my work.
If you have chosen to read my content, I will make you look forward to every edition.
Dear YT Friends & Public Investment Community,
First of all, we are now in 2H 2022. I wish all of you a better 2H 2022 than what we experienced in 1H 2022. The photo above is a picture from where I’m writing this email today. Happy July 4th long weekend if you are from the U.S.
Now let’s get into it.
As I said in last week’s email newsletter, there is “no greater power of seduction in markets than rapidly rising prices.”
We have now witnessed that the folks who chased the rally into this past week took on risk when risk/reward had dramatically moved away from them. At one point, the SPX had retraced by almost 4.5%
Look, I know that everyone is looking for a bottom in the stock market, and let me tell you that I want to be the first person to deliver ANY good news to you. This is what I have been doing all of March-May on my views on China.
Notice on my channel I had very little bullish things to say on U.S. equities during this March-May timeframe (just look at the thumbnails).
My thumbnails were decidedly bearish on U.S housing and bullish on China.
I did not comment much on U.S. equities.
My thumbnails are a great way to understand the evolution of my thinking.
Sometimes I will be right. Sometimes I will be wrong. I am a mere mortal.
But I do my research. I do my homework.
And this time I was right.
Unfortunately, only a small portion of investors (mostly members inside my Patreon community) were able to take advantage of the China rally.
Many others of my public Youtube audience decided to continually question my strategy.
What a shame - to say the least.
But hey, I’m not here to say I was right about China, and the retail skeptics were wrong. I’m also not going to fault them. After all, if their experience and perspective are limited, I cannot blame them. They just haven’t been educated yet.
It’s all good - I still welcome all such commentary on my channel. Makes things more interesting.
I’m simply fully focused on my research and providing objective analysis on what I see happening in U.S. and China markets.
Some of my opinions may be early (ideally not TOO early ofc), but that’s exactly the point. You cannot precisely time the exact bottom.
Obviously, on Youtube, I have to be a bit more bold in my thumbnails. But members inside my Community know that I am very serious about risk-management in all my guidance. I discuss “areas of value” and provide scenario analysis. I do not give binary conclusions like “this is the bottom” or “this is the top.”
People can certainly try to time the exact bottom, but most people who try to do so will most likely fail. My strategy is to start moving towards risk when risk/reward is in my favor and away from risk when risk/reward is not in my favor.
If I was a bit too early, so be it. But anyone familiar with my style knows that I hate chasing a rebound. I hate paying a premium when I could have bought something that was dirt cheap.
Waiting for confirmation can in itself be expensive too.
My specialty is identifying exceptionally strong risk/reward setups across the U.S. and China tech & consumers space.
I believe there are several opportunities in 2H 2022 that are starting to surface.
China was my biggest conviction opinion on Youtube and inside Patreon in 1H 2022.
I’m not saying that the China Internet trade has sailed, but prices have moved so far away from the lows, that I’m already on the search for the next big macro sector move.
If you are a long-term investor, and you do not solely think on a month/month level and are okay with some drawdown before ideas materialize in a big way (like China), I could be the Strategist for you.
I’m very much focused on helping people become better, stronger, and more advanced investors.
I’m also very proud that my work’s impact is multiplied far beyond my Patreon Community. With Financial Advisors leveraging my guidance for their clients, I hope to have helped even more people from this challenging environment.
Just imagine. What clients would think of their Financial Advisors (FAs) if these advisors told them to…
Add positions in China ($BABA) during February-May.
Tactically reduce risk at 4150 SPX.
Tactically add risk at 3650 SPX.
Be mindful of that SPX 3850-4000 region where “sellers would double down on their efforts”
I want more Financial Advisors (FA) to look and stay sharp in this market!
I want to become the Advisor for the Advisors. I will use 2H 2022 to solidify this reputation.
Now here’s my June Strategy Slide Deck that I issued to my Members inside Patreon.
Most of the actionable ideas have already been executed upon. But I’m sharing it with you because I want you to have more exposure to my Research, and I want to help you think with my frameworks.
I assure you that if you follow my line of thinking, you will evolve yourself to be a force to be reckoned with as an individual investor.
You can see in the image below that everything in our all my reports are timestamped and clearly marked. This report was published on 6/1. (Click file link PDF below where it says 1.79MB).
Here’s a highlight snapshot of my opinion from my June Monthly Slide Deck report that was published on June 1st.
Looking back, I saved quite a few people from getting trapped in that SPX 4150 region.
Before we wrap up, I want to take a moment to thank Interactive Brokers for being one of our Channel’s trusted Partners. They have world-class international trading features such as being able to buy HK-listed shares or on-shore China stocks.
If you are concerned about China’s ADR delisting issue, know that IB allows investors to buy HK-listed shares to avoid any hassles if that event occurs.
Interactive brokers allows investors to buy HK-listed shares of Alibaba, JD, Tencent, and other brand name Chinese Internet companies on the HK market. Click the links to check out their features.
If you are concerned about Chinese ADR stocks getting delisted, owning HK-listed shares removes the hassle.
That’ll do for this update.
Social: https://www.instagram.com/larrycheungcfa/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LarryCheungCFA
Patreon Investment Community: https://www.patreon.com/larrycheung
❤️ this email if you enjoyed the read. And see you in my next Youtube Video.
Your Investment Strategist,
Larry
Important note: My public letters are not financial advice. You must do your own research. They are designed for educational purposes only.
Retail Sentiment: Bearish.
Let me help you take advantage of the current environment we are in.