U.S. Macro Strategy Briefing: The Stage is Set for Higher Rates And Therefore a More Severe Recession

June FOMC Commentary + A Dow 30 Stock That Has Trading and Investment Potential

Jerome is sowing the macro seeds for the Bear to be stronger than ever when it awakens with his hawkish policy. He may have very well created a temporary multi-month bull market in the context of a very large bear market.

Members,

This will be a concise update. I’ve listened to the June FOMC, and I will explain in plain english what I think about this as well as investment implications.

Before I do, let’s take a look at a recent poll I ran on Twitter in terms of what type of analysis/research is most important to my Community here.

From this data, I will use this information to guides how I will proportion my analysis. I personally use all 4 types of analysis when I provide guidance, as all 4 areas help me refine my edge.

How I will prioritize analysis breakdown in my Community

Geopolitical analysis may have been chosen as 4th place, but in my methodology, it plays a very large role as it is impossible to understand China’s sector movements without understanding the political landscape (which I follow closely).

A part of this note will also explain, in my view, why China has strengthened so that members understand the “Why” rather than the What. Exploring the “Why” leads to greater critical thinking, and increases intellectual conversation.

Let us recap on things that have occurred in the market:

• We’ve been positioning for a recovery in China - which is now in motion

• I personally liked the setup on U.S. Retail Stocks 30 days ago, and will make this post here open without paywall to demonstrate this view. That opinion played out nicely, and you can see on Twitter that small conservative positions when entered at Swing Lows add up to gains very quickly. See this blurb here on when I discussed retail turnaround candidates like Target, Nike, and FIVE - all of which have done well over the past 30 days.

• Generally speaking, my methodology works like this: I enter a name at the discussed level and I give it a 90 day window. During these 90 days, my level provided is designed to generate about 3-5% at any given point. There can be a drawdown during these 90 days, but at some point, I believe I will see 3-5% (or better). Beyond 3-5%, I do not have much visibility into what may happen next, and when I see a return I am happy with, I close it. Conservative gains, when repeated like this on a system, is a machine that keeps paying me over and over again.

My Community’s trading guidance is well suited for folks who enjoy these types of safer return profiles.

I have to be clear in that I am no expert in finding home runs, and 2023 has eluded me in this regard. I missed Tesla. I missed NVDA. I missed some of the other hot stocks that ran up in May.

But once again, that’s not my goal. My goal is do 1% a month. My goal is to be able to withdraw (pay myself) from my trading account a couple thousand dollars every month for income, and I have been successful with this endeavor.

To me, money in my brokerage isn’t real until I withdraw it in cash.

My methodology is designed to find repeatable ideas, patterns, and setups that stack edge and probability in our favor.

If that sounds like you, let’s now talk about the June FOMC (briefly), and more excitingly, talk about a stock that may have made an unjustified drop and may be a setup for a 3-5% return (in the very near future).