The Great Reset Has Begun: How to seize this opportunity and change your life within the next 18-24 Months
Like this email if you are ready to do take advantage of the opportunities life will present you in the coming 18-24 months.
Note to my Friends here: This is an email about Life Strategy & Perspective. My Investment Strategy & Research can be found inside our Community. More than ever, I want to take a moment to share life principles that will make you as successful as possible (which I’m sure you already are, but I wish to enhance your success even further). If you enjoy this email, share it with a friend. I hope it helps you and them.
Dear friends from my Public & Private Community,
I know everybody here primarily follows me for my views and research on Investment Strategy. But in today’s email, I want to write to you about my views on how to be more successful as a person in the coming 18-24 months, which I believe will be a large opportunity to move up the social ladder (by several ranks) for those who are prepared.
Yes, there are many sophisticated folks who follow my research and work. Perhaps you are already successful yourself. But there are also good folks who are still starting their journey or perhaps actively traveling that journey as we speak. This email is designed for my friends who are are on their way towards being successful.
There is a disturbing trend that I am noticing in the U.S. workplace and it’s a trend called “quiet quitting.”
You see, quiet quitting is a phenomenon where workers “quit” the idea of going above and beyond for their employers. Although the exact origin of where this phrase or mindset comes from is not clear, it most likely has to do with the perception that working so hard in a high inflation, weak growth outlook, and stressful environment is generally a losing game.
And to that, I can’t exactly blame folks for buying into this idea. As people who always strive to grow, it can indeed get disheartening when we double down on our work attitude yet the rewards & outcomes may not be immediately clear.
The quiet quitting mindset that is now discussed mainstream here on U.S. social media is actually very similar the “Lying Flat” (Tang Ping - 躺平) phenomenon that is current happening in China.
Yes, I understand how tough the economy in China is right now (I cover this sector very closely on Youtube). We know that the Youth Unemployment rate (measures for 16-24 year olds) in China is very elevated at 17.9%. This is an improvement from this summer in July when it was as high as nearly 19.9% for China’s youth as Covid lockdowns essentially made many megacities in China shut off from commerce.
Now that the Fed (in their latest November FOMC) has clearly told us that a Fed Pause isn’t coming anytime soon, and that they see a higher terminal rate (translation: higher interest rates than previously expected), we are in for an even more challenging environment than previously expected.
Previously, the Fed Reserve had said themselves that they see the 2023 Fed Funds Target to be 4.5%-5%, with 5% being the upper end of the range.
In their latest press conference in the November FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), Fed Chief Powell now sees that interest rates might have to go beyond this range.
When I heard that at the November FOMC, I had to face palm….and ask out loud “What on earth is the Fed doing?”.
I personally do not think the Fed has the ability to raise rates beyond 5%, and I DO think they are bluffing. But until I am proven correct about this, markets will remain extremely volatile.The stock market (as a forward looking mechanism) may decide to get past this in the coming quarters. But the real economy will not. The real economy will suffer the consequences.
This has incredibly challenging implications for the following asset classes (more analysis provided inside our Investment Community):
Real Estate: With mortgage rates now set to go far above 7%, we will see Home Values get pressured even further. The zip codes that have more exposure to tech/real estate employment will be impacted more
U.S. Equities: A more hawkish Fed is going to keep the tech sector’s rebound in check. This is precisely why the Dow Jones stocks have rebounded as capital reallocates into Value stocks away from cyclical Growth stocks.
Emerging Markets: The strong Dollar is going to drive the indebtedness of emerging central banks and their equity markets to uncomfortable levels.
U.S Fixed Income: The bear market in Bonds is unlikely to end at this very moment based on Fed language in November. Bond investors will have to wait a bit longer, but they will have their time in the sun again in the future.
With the U.S. economy on course to enter its next dangerous stage as the Fed reacts on lagged economic data, it makes sense that some folks are quiet-quitting at their jobs because do not see the point in working so hard.
But in my personal opinion, this is perhaps the WORST time and the most DANGEROUS time to be quiet-quitting.
Here’s why:
Companies are about to get a lot more defensive about their budgets, and they will be in the mindset of needing their staff to “do more, for less”
Companies will be more focused on protecting their bottom line at all costs as they seek to shift from an offensive corporate mindset to a defensive mindset.
Every HR department and human capital leader at the Fortune 500 is actively monitoring the productivity levels of their staffing base at the companies. In business, productivity equals profit. A less productive workforce means that the company surrenders their competitive advantage (See what Elon Musk is doing at Twitter below - he asked Managers to review TWTR staff contributions in making a list of who to keep and who to cut). Also see the blurb from Harvard Business School on why productivity is so important.
On Elon and his staff personnel decisions
On why Quiet Quitting will hurt a company’s competitive advantage.
There are many Youtubers who are talking about quiet quitting and the benefits that come from this mindset.
I absolutely disagree with this, and believe that people who do this are going to put their careers in peril.
This advice will set up people to fail in this environment, and I will be very opinionated about defending your best interests.
Do NOT participate in this bull-shit quiet-quitting trend.
At my company Tigerway (which is what I do outside of Youtube), I have asked my Program Officers to inform our staff to perform their best as they serve the families who we help.
Parents spend hard-earned tuition money at my Program, and I will not allow for any quiet-quitting mentality among my staff to take place in my organization.
It is an unacceptable form of thinking, and at least in my organization, any staff personnel who exhibits this mentality will not be promoted.
The coming economic pain that the U.S. will face will be unlike anything that many folks have seen before.
This is precisely the time to step up, add more value to the Communities that we serve, and really hone in on understanding the problems that we are tasked to solve and provide even stronger solutions.
I can promise you that the next 18-24 months will be a massive opportunity for those who are prepared to MOVE UP in the social ladder. For some, it could be an opportunity to secure a competitive advantage in their career that they may not be able to achieve in an otherwise normal environment.
Quiet quitting is a harmful and detrimental mindset to people at the exact moment when they should be doubling-down on their careers.
For a more thorough conversation on this, watch my latest video here that I released for you.
In this environment, it is now time to build your skills, build your knowledge, develop a habit of building and seize the opportunity that is coming to us.
I personally believe that doubling down on your career, and starting a 2nd source of income (if you have the time and energy) should be the strategies to pursue.
With more resources, you will be able to accumulate more stocks and assets when the deflationary bust happens.
In investing, you need money to make money.
Down the line, I will be creating courses/programs to help my friends here build secondary sources of income so that they have additional resources to invest. I plan to create programs like this in 2023.
In the meantime, capital preservation is king. Staying invested during this volatile time is also a strong idea.
In my Community, I have been advocating the importance of lengthening out your investment timeline. Reduce the frequency of transacting, focus on at least an intermediate-term investing/long-term investing strategy and let the Day Traders exhaust themselves with mentally-draining buying & selling.
Once the Day Traders are totally flushed out in 18-24 months, we will DCA into our favorite positions and hold them to build generational wealth with our deep dedication towards patience and staying the course.
Stay safe. Stay fit/healthy. And stay mentally strong.
The biggest challenges are up ahead.
That’ll do for this brief update. Add me on Instagram and Twitter below. On Youtube, I typically only get to post once per week (usually). But I am able to be a bit more active on Twitter and Instagram.
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Best Investment Platform For HK-Listed Shares for Chinese Internet Companies: Interactive Brokers or Moomoo
❤️ this email if you enjoyed the read. And see you in my next Youtube Video.
Your Investment Strategist,
Larry