Simply Insidious: Trump sends the market to the SHADOW REALM
At least we were nimble.
Hey Friends,
It was a dark day for the U.S. economy today. Trump just confirmed that he will proceed with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada tomorrow. A move that is likely to push U.S. consumers to the edge (if they aren’t there yet already) with prices of daily items increasing at the checkout.
No relief, despite some news flow on Sunday about the Secretary of Commerce saying that there might have been adjustment to the 25% tariff figure.
Oh well - Looks like Trump intends to send the U.S. economy into the Shadow Realm (a reference from the popular Japanese anime Yu-Gi-Oh).
Earlier this weekend, I had a view that we might retrace perhaps 50% of recent NASDAQ losses so that we might see 21300-21350 at some point in March.
And in today’s Pre-Market we touched as high as 21130, only about 200 points away, so being cognizant of the environment, I wrote the following (Pre-Market notes below).
We’re close to my 50% decline retracement level, but due to the environment, I rate all rallies being flimsy and being prone to failure at a higher rate far more than in stable environments.
That there is 0, and I mean 0, reason to have tried to add on strength in the pre-market today. A lot of traders like to sell weakness/buy strength. In a mean reverting environment like we’re in now, we need to sell Moonshots and Buy Earthquakes. I recognize we’re in a mean-reverting market.
Members know that I usually rate the market a Hold about 85% of the time.
Today in the pre-market though, given that had a +150 point upside move in the NASDAQ, we came to the following conclusion:
Even though we’re not exactly at my NQ target, I subjectively believed that any inventory/positioning acquired during last Thursday’s lows from my Buy the Dip Voice Note on WhatsApp should be carefully managed with Stops or Trims.
Now, members may wonder why I didn’t wait until my NQ 21300 target to reduce positioning.
It’s because of what happened this weekend.
THE “STRATEGIC CRYPTO RESERVE”.
When I read about it, I was like this is the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen. Why on earth is the U.S. putting crap like Solana, Ripple, and ADA in a strategic reserve?
DON’T THEY KNOW THAT THESE ARE SHITCOINS.
But then I realized OH - Trump is following through with all of his campaign promises.
For better or for worse, I guess.
This reminded me of the late January event of Fartcoin mooning JUST BEFORE the Deepseek Rugpull happened.
And with that, coming into the the Monday pre-market session, I was very fearful that he would follow through on his tariff threats. In such an instance, my models indicated a 0% chance of the pre-market gains holding.
So, I said “hey friends, if you’re up on any Lots acquired from last Thursday/Friday, now’s not a bad time to take some off.”
Look folks, my style is Strategic Dip Buying. That’s all I do. I wait for what I perceive to be the best times to Buy Dips. And then I share with the folks.
I know this market is bearish. But I don’t short. I’m not good at shorting/long Puts. I’ve said many times I’m not the guy to go to for that. And also, I don’t want to be the person that guides on Puts and Shorts, and then the massive Green Candle comes 24 hours later. The most difficult part to me about shorting is the Opportunity Cost involved if caught on a squeeze.
Everyone has their own specialty. Mine is Patient Strategic Dip Buying and when to take some off the table. Members will notice I made 0 mention of buying dips today.
It’s because I perceived the market wasn’t ready yet (today at least).
Hopefully that changes tomorrow, we’ll see. 1 day at a time, okay?
Deep breadths.
Things will get better. Stay positive.
I’m watching the market LIKE A HAWK to help my members.
More Strategy on Whatsapp in my Pre-Market Notes.
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