September 12th Daily Market Note: Markets enter a 7-Day Period that could determine the next 3-4 weeks of action
Premium Daily Note: 9/12
Note: Our Sector Rotation note from 9/7 has now generated about $500 in profits for me personally. I’m good for now, and am closing them ahead of being out of office.
Good news is that I have a new Sector Rotation idea already - down below, beneath the paywall.
I’m taking a break from trading for 2 weeks as I go out-of-office. I’ll be in “Investing” mode until October 1st and let existing positions do the work. Only active positions held now are in Retirement accounts.
Daily Market Note: September 12th 2023 by Larry Cheung, CFA
Markets enter a 7-Day Period that could determine the next 3-4 weeks of action
Forward-looking Conclusions of this note:
Macro: In my view, it may be difficult for inflation to come in much lower than 2.8-3% headline CPI, and this may mark the beginning of higher figures going forward. This may confirm that QQQ is in a Lower-Highs structure since July, and that rallies will start to be met with resistance later this Fall.
Stock-Specific: Closing all Sell Put positions discussed during Pre-Market Chat from 9/7 Sector Rotation Note – netting around 500. I do not keep open trading positions while out-of-office. Long-Term Investment Positions are rated a Hold.
Bonds: Treasuries via TLT will make a large move in coming days. Will watch. No action yet.
China: One of our Top Ideas, New Oriental, has advanced 8% since our 9/7 Sector Rotation Note. Will continue to find more. Always be patient.
Daily Market Note & Context
Over the past 30-45 days, Oil and Energy Prices – which are an 8% component weight in CPI – has risen about 20-25%. In July of this year, Crude traded 66 near its swing lows. Today, it’s closer to 89.
With narratives surrounding production supply cuts as well as strong forward demand for oil growing louder, large Investment Banks (which have the ability to disseminate views widely and broadly) are rapidly moving up their price targets for Crude to arrive closer towards $100. If Crude can manage a weekly close above the 90-92 region, I believe buy-side algorithms and fund managers will start applying selling pressure on sectors that have related exposure. Here is my line of thinking along with Sector Rotation ideas below 👇 :