Note: This is a very brief note to our community ahead of Inflation CPI tomorrow. For more frequent, insightful, and tactical strategy on markets and career guidance, let me help you inside our investment community.
Dear Public Investment Community,
By now, you should be able to tell I love writing to you and my community here.
Especially when things are tough. Not going to leave people hanging when they need me most.
And I hope the feeling is mutual. If you enjoy my notes to you, please share my email newsletter here with friends/family. I appreciate you.
Just a quick note on inflation CPI tomorrow, and I’m signing off for the day.
Earlier today, I posted a new poll on my Youtube Community tab about our audience’s opinion on Inflation CPI ahead of tomorrow.
In my opinion, in order for the market to rally, we would need to see a CPI print come in at less than 8.5% (which was last month’s print). If the market rallies with CPI north of 8.5%, I would have to further study why that is the case.
Again, anything is possible. But some things are more likely to happen than others.
Although this poll hasn’t yet reached 1000 votes (which is the threshold I usually wait for), we can preliminarily say that roughly 45% of the crowd sees under 8.5% CPI happening while 55% sees a CPI greater than 8.5% - with 32% especially concerned about >9% headline inflation.
These figures are also consistent with the polls surrounding investor bearishness. Naturally, the higher the inflation, the greater the negativity surrounding the real economy.
For me and our Patreon Investment Community, I’m not gambling or making predictions on what CPI might be.
Instead here’s what I discussed yesterday and then today inside our inner circle:
Yesterday inside Patreon (see image below), we discussed that 3940 to 4020 was the region where I believed a FIRST ST bounce would happen for the S&P 500. Yesterday’s close was 3991. Now I come to these levels from a combination of fundamental/technical/macro considerations as well as watching sentiment closely.
Well, we saw that today at the open, S&P 500 traded north of 4060 (which was a nice 1.5% rally) and we got the bounce we were looking for. But I don’t just talk about entry ranges, I talk about probabilities of durability and whether the rally can last. There were many people actually chasing the morning rally at 4060.
Expensive mistake. S&P 500 traded down to 3970 before eventually finding its footing to close at 4000.
(Patreon Post Yesterday 5/9: Content greyed out because that’s for my Patreon members)
(early in the morning today: shared tactical commentary ahead of CPI tomorrow)
I said inside Discord (where I share timely commentary) that chasing this specific counter-trend rally would likely be a mistake, and discussed the fact that light fading may be appropriate.
Look folks, I’m a long-term investor, and I bet you are too. But thoughtful guidance and commentary like the ones I’m sharing can help you sharpen your equity analyst skills and can make you a more effective portfolio manager for yourself.
I want to help you outlast this bear market, alive.
And as for tomorrow’s CPI, I was able to do a bit of risk-reduction today near the highs. So if we get slapped tomorrow, I’ll surely get hit.
But not as hard.
If you’re bullishly positioned, you know that I’m always rooting for you.
That’ll do for this short update.
If you’re looking to truly understand the investing environment we’re in, and want to support my research/work, let me help you inside my community. I’m on a mission to help people as many people as I can - hardworking, highly intellectual people like yourselves.
❤️ this email if you enjoyed the read. And see you in my next Youtube Video.
Until then, follow me on Instagram for some VISUAL commentary.
Your Investment Strategist,
Larry