Note to Public Community: The S&P 500 above 4500. Alibaba above 110. VIX near 20.
Public Commentary + My Latest YT Video
Premium Public Content (For Youtube Friends)
Hey YT Friends, it's your friend & Investment Strategist Larry Cheung, CFA.
I’m still fairly new to this new email platform called Substack. I’m new to it. Give me some time to understand and fully grasp it. I really like the fact that it has an archive like feature that allows you to read my previous public posts. Please share this email to friends and family who you think might enjoy my content.
When I made my video in February about a large stock market bounce emerging soon, I received quite a bit of pushback in the comments section. With all due respect, I welcome all comments as long as they are constructive.
As both a creator on Youtube and an Investment Strategist, I’m in a very unique position in that I get access to many micro-data points of sentiment since retail investors love “sharing their thoughts” on my comments section.
Fast forward 30-45 days, my thesis is playing out sooner than expected and it appears that the markets have swung its pendulum of emotions from bitter/fearful to a quite a bit too optimistic (IMHO).
Even though my forecast is technically “correct”, I’m rather nervous about the nature of the rebound and how uncontested it has been without any type of consolidation.
(Public Video from late February)
From a longer-term view, I’m naturally positive on equities as an asset class given the current landscape that we’re in (low interest rates, relatively stable economy, and strong corporate earnings) and viewed February and March as opportunities strategically accumulate if you had the risk-tolerance to do so.
My larger mission to help my public and private communities understand how to think rationally about the market when sentiment swings hard in one direction.
After the latest swing upward, my bullish tone has been adjusted and I share my thoughts with my inner circle in my latest update in terms of what I believe is coming next, along with actionable strategy.
Right now, SPX is above 4500, BABA is above 110, and VIX is at 20.
In my latest update, I discuss what to look for and HOW TO think about the market from here.
My Latest Youtube Video
Longer-term, I wish to make my channel approximately 70-75% focused on Investment Strategy while leaving 20-25% of my content related to personal development, entrepreneurship, and career growth.
I believe that these content topics go hand in hand. After all, you can’t really “invest” if you have little or no capital. To build up capital, you need to also find additional ways to earn different income streams or increase what you’re earning today.
Although I am a hardcore analyst when it comes to investments, I wish to continue to add value to your lives in different aspects as well.
Here’s what my latest Youtube video is about:
Topic: Growing On Youtube in 2022
Unique Angle: Using the same deep level of analysis I use on investment strategy, applied to Youtube Growth
Intended Audience: 1.) Aspiring Entrepreneurs, 2.) Corporate Employees who wish to develop a 2nd source of income, 3.) New/Existing Content Creators
Reason I made this video: To help our Youtube Friends understand that my thought process/analytical research can be applied to areas outside of investment strategy
Thoughts on the YT Algorithm: I know that my non-investment videos don’t get me as many views as my investment videos. I’m fine with that. I firmly believe in the deep value of my non-investment video content. My non-investment content also has longer shelf life and can benefit viewers regardless of when they view it.
(See what a fellow Youtuber has to say) 😊
You’ll love the insights in this video even if you don’t have any desire to be a creator on Youtube. Promise.
Inner Circle Retail Investment Community Updates on Patreon
In this market, I have to be very selective with my guidance, especially since I focus on both the index directionally and names inside my coverage universe.
Broadly speaking, I objectively believe that I guided our community with strong advice during the market volatility we saw in Q1 2022. I say this proudly because my advice is documented both publicly and privately inside Patreon with timestamps behind all my market notes. I also document missed opportunities.
See the table below to look at my won and lost opportunities.
One trade that I benefitted from but would not do so in hindsight was this:
During the market selloff in Q1 2022, I significantly trimmed AAPL to 30% of my original position to fund a higher beta rebound in NVDA/SHOP/BABA/FB. I was able to later repurchase AAPL but at a smaller size, and did not capture the full upside swing from the rebound.
While the net result has been positive, given that I made that transaction when market volatility was exceptionally high in late Feb/early March, I admit that I would have taken a very large hit if markets had turned further south post March-FOMC given that NVDA/SHOP/BABA/FB are much higher beta than AAPL.
Being objective and balanced and constantly evaluating my own approach is an important part of my investment community. This is the type of integrity and commitment to constant growth that you can expect.
A table discussed in one of my recent Youtube videos on won/missed opportunities
We discussed FB as a unique opportunity in late February.
We discussed BABA as a unique opportunity in early March. This thesis has been heavily discussed publicly as well.
Most importantly, I serve as psychological support and an emotional well-being guide when markets get ugly to help our community make the best possible decisions during times of disorder.
That’s it for this update. Leave a like if you enjoyed this email. Share my newsletter with friends/family/colleagues if you believe they will enjoy/benefit from my work.
See you back on Youtube soon,
Larry