Extreme Market Volatility Update: $UNH Rallies To DCF Base Case and Gold Continues to Shine
Special Offer: We try to help more people with membership pricing when our Opinions come to fruition.
Hey Folks,
To put in a straight-forward way, it’s been a really challenging few days in the market, but I will continue doing my best to help find ideas that may have some green-shoots even when things are looking challenging.
Whenever we have a high conviction opinion idea play out, we’ll do a special membership deal to help more people during this stage of heightened market volatility. Rather than do special offers on holidays or some calendar event, I want to share special pricing when our calls actually help our members to find some defensive aspect that can still be green in a sea of red.
Today is one of those days.
Stock-Selection
UNH 0.00%↑ has been under heavy scrutiny lately as we all know but my DCF Model believed and shared that the company was worth a minimum of 535-540/share in early January. At the time of posting, it was around 505ish and I shared my opinion in a rather high conviction language that it was a “no-brainer”.
Members know that I waited almost 3-4 WEEKS before commenting on UNH. I waited for the dust to settle. Folks familiar with my work will notice I will wait as long as needed for risk/reward to make sense before issuing this type of commentary.
The stock made the journey from 505 (when we called it a no-brainer) on 1/2/25 to 535 today, in the context of very difficult investing conditions across the board. 7% is really good given the context right now.
I understand that much of the market is still under severe pressure, but at the very least, I do think UNH we found a defensive gem when we discussed it.
Gold and Oil
In late December as I planned for some diversification ideas for 2025, I highlighted the bullish opportunity in Gold and Oil from a year-long planning perspective…
At the time, Gold and Oil were around 2650ish and 68/bbl respectively.
Yields and the Dollar have constrained Gold, but I’ve been trying to help folks understand that at the very least we would see 2698-2700 per ounce in Q1.
Even after yields surge today, Gold continues to rally into the 2730/oz region and Oil as we know now has entered my 74-77/bbl target.
This has resulted in XOP ETF when we discussed it in early December make a sequence move from the 130 area to now close to 138-140.
Our ETF positioning in GLD ETF and XOP ETF has been favorable.
This is all in the context of the broader stock market being quite challenging.
Now I still like China long-term, but I haven’t issued any new ideas on China lately because I know that the context still awaits further catalysts before the next squeeze higher. No change in view on China - I remain constructive.
I will continue to do my best to find ideas such as these to act as upside ideas based on the DCF modeling and macro research I do in the background. Folks who have a longer-term orientation are in the best position to take advantage of my ideas.
For these two recent actionable ideas working to our favor, we’ll give special pricing off Annual memberships (to take full advantage of investing positions, we need time to have it play out).
This current deal will last until the end of this weekend.
Your support is important to our Community and we spend a lot of time thinking about any ideas that can help you find strong risk/reward candidates in this market.
Will be working hard to find more opportunities. Hope you join us.
When a snapback rally occurs, we don’t want readers to be locked out of the rebound. We think this environment is a time of opportunity to thoughtfully find deals in the market.
