DCF Conclusion Study on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

Key CapEx Name within SOXX ETF.

Hi Everyone,

Now that we’re back from the long weekend, I’m going to get back to finishing the DCF Conclusion Studies on the top weighted names in the SOXX Semiconductor ETF.

For new readers on my Substack, I do DCF Conclusion Studies on the most important companies to understand their Bear/Base/Bull Cases which will allow me to have a sense of their upside (or downside) range potential.

This approach to understanding markets is considered a “bottom-up approach” as I trade the index based on our forecast of the cap-weighted companies themselves.

I have made my focus on macro secondary (important, but not my primary focus), and have reallocated my attention towards the fusion of DCF Conclusion Study values together with price action.

Macro views take a substantial time horizon to play out. But DCF Conclusion Study values can play out anywhere from a few weeks to a few months.

While the rally in tech has caught a lot of people off guard, we were knew that this was a decent possibility as many of the FAAMG Companies’ Bull Cases were still higher than current values.

What was our big picture target on QQQ ETF (NQ Equivalent) this year? $500/share.

It touched last week.

As earnings season comes through, I will be able to update my DCF Conclusion Study models to get the most objective understanding of where companies “should” trade.

Cut through the noise about how “overvalued” the market is, and study the fair value companies that actually drive it.

See below. Bull Case for the majority Top QQQ ETF stocks are now trading at my Bull Case now. A few weeks ago they traded the Base Case.

Once I finish the SOXX names, I will have an equivalent table like this for Members on the semiconductors sector.

What does this mean for traders & investors? We’ll talk about that below along with my TSM DCF Conclusion Study.