A tremendous warning was issued after FOMC yesterday. Opportunities are emerging. PLEASE do not miss this.
I mean business when I say I am going to do whatever I can to protect my members' capital. Hit the like button, share my newsletter and my work if I have helped you in any way.
Note: In my last email, I shared with you my June 1st Half Investment Strategy report that was exclusively for my Patreon Community. I did this to pay it forward to my wonderful online friends here, and I sincerely hope you got good takeaways from that research note where I said we could see ST bounces in the context of a larger decline. Now, you see my Research means business.
Dear YT Friends & Public Investment Community,
This email is going to be informal in language.
As human beings and creatures of emotions, our belief system can be easily influenced by the primary ways we acquire information: through what we see and what we hear.
Yesterday, what we saw and heard from the June FOMC once again was one of the greatest sleight of hands I’ve ever seen.
But you would’ve only picked up on it if you watched the entire Press Conference and the Q&A section with reporters.
I spend enormous amounts of time following markets and being closely “in tune” with how the buy side is thinking, because at this point, I even have my high school classmates and my former colleagues/bosses inside my Patreon Community. I feel responsibility on my shoulders.
On top of this, given the large number of Financial Advisors in my community, my impact is essentially multiplied as my “strategy” becomes their “advice” to clients.
With great power comes great responsibility, and I am determined to serve our Community in the best way possible.
After the FOMC meeting yesterday, we were greeted with this innocent headline on Bloomberg that says that Powell has soothed Wall Street’s nerves.
However, for anyone who actually bothered to listen closely to the Press Conference and Q&A, here was what I picked up:
That 75BP hikes are not out of the question in future meetings (meaning that what Powell said just a few weeks ago has been INVALIDATED)
The Fed thinks the consumer is still in good shape (Excuse me, what?)
The Fed thinks there is NO sign of broader consumer weakening and NO signs of broad slowdown (This is when I was like “okay, I’m issuing a caution RIGHT now to my Patreon members”)
The Fed thinks the US economy is in a strong position
The Fed does NOT think QT will lead to illiquidity in the stock market
The Fed said the Fed Funds was ONCE at 6%, and therefore, today’s Fed Funds rates is still very low.
Powell says the the US Economy can handle further monetary tightening from here
As a Strategist who has followed the Fed’s thinking very closely, I can tell you that Powell somehow thinks that the US Consumer is very strong. Just like I told my community yesterday evening, I said…
The Fed has ammunition to get further hawkish with their policy because they believe the US Consumer is still in good shape.
The problem is not whether what the reality actually is but rather what the Fed has decided to believe.
And right now, the Fed believes the US economy can handle further tightening and will go about doing so given that inflation is still exceptionally high.
To me, Powell sent me and the buyside community a very clear message that if inflation data gets worse, the Fed may even take more restrictive steps from here.
Look, and please hear me out, I do NOT enjoy getting bearish opinions become validated or correct. I would much rather be 180 degrees wrong when it comes to being bearish.
However, I had to trust my research and methodology. Therefore, yesterday afternoon, I issued a research note to our Patreon Members inside Discord to not chase yesterday’s post-FOMC rally as it would be met with strong selling forces soon.
I told members to expect a counter trend rally up to SPX 3850 (which essentially occurred) before hawkish fears resume.
Link to Patreon: Discord Note published to Community post-June FOMC in the afternoon
My June 2nd Half Investment Strategy report has been issued earlier this week to Members on Tuesday evening before June FOMC. You can see from the title below a couple quick conclusions. This was when SPX was at 3740 (Tuesday Close).
I discussed the potential for SPX to reach 3850+ in a counter trend rally (SPX rallied to high of 3835 post June FOMC)
And then discussing the potential for SPX to eventually fall to even 3650 or under in the continuation of the market structure we are in. (SPX reached 3650 in intraday low today)
In this environment, I am actively encouraging you to get and seek guidance. Look for people who can be your mentor and a source of guidance during this moment in time.
If you enjoy my work publicly, you can choose to get this guidance from me.
Or you can it from someone else.
That’s perfectly fine too. Look, I just want you to succeed, okay?
The bottom line is, get guidance. Whatever you do, use this time to step up your game.
Do not do this on your own.
Do not let this bear market go to waste in terms of sourcing emerging opportunities.
Do not let this event be a waste in terms of your investor education.
Money can be lost (but it can be regained). You cannot regain time (that you should have spent upgrading your skills)
As I’ve often said, Investments is a team sport, and I want to be your Captain.
There are emerging opportunities now surfacing where I believe investors who have done their HW appropriately will be rewarded.
I want to take a moment to thank Interactive Brokers for being one of our Channel’s trusted Partners and to inform my audience of the special features they have given that my online friends here closely follow Chinese Internet stocks (BABA/Tencent).
Much of my audience is concerned about the US ADR issue of Chinese Stocks being delisted. I am too (but not to the extent most retail investors are).
Interactive brokers allows investors to buy HK-listed shares of Alibaba, JD, Tencent, and other brand name Chinese Internet companies on the HK market. This will effectively reduce any confusion or work you will have to do in case there is the event of delisting US ADRs
Click the link to learn more about IB
That’ll do for this short update.
If you’re looking to truly understand the investing environment we’re in, and want to support my research/work, let me help you inside my community. I’m on a mission to help people as many people as I can - hardworking, highly intellectual people like yourselves.
❤️ this email if you enjoyed the read. And see you in my next Youtube Video.
Until then, follow me on Instagram for some VISUAL commentary.
Your Investment Strategist,
Larry