7/16 Daily Plan: New Sequence List
After doing the DCF Conclusion Studies on key companies within the index, I will monitor the stocks for opportunities both on short-timeframes and long-timeframes in a Sequence list.
The last Sequence list is doing everything that I’ve expected:
UNH swing low at 490 to target 500 at the very least. It’s now 540.
China’s BABA got to 78.5 and KWEB got to 28 before rebounding
Ulta got to 410 from 390
Expedia doing reasonably well from 128 (now 135 as of this post)
We also discussed Gold and Oil XOP ETF as sector rotation candidates a few weeks ago. That’s also doing decently.
Here’s a new sequence list I’m watching:
On China
I do not expect China stocks to be top priority for investors as the Trump trade narrative is about being ‘tough on China’. However, the Sector is reasonably priced in an expensive market so I always look to China when opportunities present themselves. A bit of patience here is best.
I believe KWEB may see some type of bullish sequence again at the 26.8-27.1 area. There’s about 2-4% upside tradable potential from that area in my opinion.
PDD saw 145 last week, which was very close to my 150 target. I think if investors see 128-130 again, they’ll reload there again. My 150 target is unchanged. It was essentially seen last week, and I think it will be seen again.
U.S. Stocks:
Banks: Previously discussed names AXP/JPM are now taking off from 225 and 195 respectively. Lift stops if still held, let them run.
Tech: U.S. tech is going through a digestion phase. I will definitely have more commentary on this area once earnings season comes through for the FAAMG mega cap stocks. Tech is a Hold ahead of earnings. It is too early to add here. Long-term this sector is still definitely a Buy.
If there is a large tech dip BEFORE earnings, I will share more opinions then.
Retail: Select names within U.S. Retail are going through the first stages of a bottoming phase in my opinion.
If the Nike selloff doesn’t deteriorate from here at 72.5, shares could see 75-76 in 4-5 weeks before further bearish pressure. A reasonable Stop would be ~70-71.
McDonalds could be turning the corner. Another 2% to 260-261 from here is reasonable.
Disney is in the early innings of a potential recovery. Shares trade 98.5 today and could see 102-104 in several weeks.
Wayfair (Disclaimer: Speculative): This stock makes large moves within the retail sector. Unless it violates the recent swing low of 50, this stock may see 65-67 again.
Dow 30: Several names from our DCF Conclusion Studies such as Caterpillar (CAT) are roaring with the Trump Trade. Caterpillar is short-term overbought, but the path for 400/share has been opened for investors as it represents infrastructure spending in the U.S. Dips on CAT are likely going to be bought to eventually break higher.
I will have more sequence ideas once more setups present themselves. All other ideas discussed previously, I still like them.
-Larry
Important Links (Organized DCF Conclusion Studies By Indices)
Semiconductor SOXX ETF Top Stocks DCF Conclusion Studies (Newly Added - will add the other SOXX names in here shortly): https://larrycheung.substack.com/t/soxx-etf-top-10-dcfs
DOW Top Stocks DCF Conclusion Studies:
https://larrycheung.substack.com/t/dow-etf-top-10-dcfs
QQQ ETF Top Stocks DCF Conclusion Studies: https://larrycheung.substack.com/t/qqq-etf-top-10-dcfs
SPY ETF Top Stocks DCF Conclusion Studies: https://larrycheung.substack.com/t/spy-etf-top-10-dcfs
Conclusion Table on Dow and QQQ ETF Stocks
Link to DCF Full Archive: https://larrycheung.substack.com/t/dcf-modeling-fundamental-analysis
Link to Educational Guides: https://larrycheung.substack.com/t/educational-guides
Q&A: Why I focus on NQ as a primary market.
My focus: I now focus about 95% of my attention on price action when it comes to the indices. I would strongly encourage spending lots of “screen time” for folks who want to navigate the market.
Note: I publish Monday-Thursday. These are my opinions based on my own research and my model may or may not aligned to the market’s thinking. I have to repeat this in all my notes as there is an element of the unknown in today’s strange macro environment.
Disclaimer: My investment community is not investment, financial, or trading advice, but for educational informational purposes only. I am happy to share my personal opinions which I provide as my personal journal. Trading of any kind of securities involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. Investors may lose everything they have. Practice extreme caution. No profit is guaranteed whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this publication are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. SEC, CFTC or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Make sure to consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor.