5/16 Daily Plan: Healthy Consolidation Before Next Move
Never a Red day again?
Hi Everyone,
Pretty quiet day on the surface today at the index level, but once again, there are nuances that I share with Members that help them find opportunity at specific windows.
Here’s is an excerpt of what we discussed in our Pre-Market Plan for NQ (QQQ ETF’s proxy):
When it comes to Macro data, I have a journal of statistics that guide me on previous historical moves. For unemployment claims, I shared with members that I believed the data-driven move may be about .15%-.2%. That was pretty much the scope of the initial move after data was released.
To get a bit more specific, I was looking for pullbacks into 186XX to float back to yesterday’s highs which is around the 18730 area.
If we examine the NQ Chart below for today’s auction, we will see the following characteristics:
A .15-.2% reaction in our expected size range after 830am’s Unemployment Claims Data
A pullback into 186XX for NQ afterwards
A push to float the index back up to yesterday’s highs - the yellow line 18738 (and even a bit of a bonus for a new high at 18760)
For an intraday scalper, this contextual information was enough to allow for a nice profitable finish to the session before noon time eastern standard time.
For members who have experience with navigating intraday moves in markets, this context should be very helpful (in my opinion).
Once again, I develop this context from having done the 10 DCF Conclusion Studies on QQQ ETF’s largest stocks (and therefore NQ). By understanding their trading ranges, I am able to make a hypothesis about upcoming moves in the NQ.
Recently, when AMD visited 145 after earnings, I told Members “Don’t Worry. This is an opportunity for another entry for a lift back to 160 in coming weeks.”
Now AMD trades 165.
Will we always have this degree of accuracy? No. There will be instances where the market takes more time than I expect for an idea to play out. Sometimes, the market will outright reject my thinking/plans.
Given time and large sample size of what we do, success rate of my ideas is quite favorable.
And with markets now extremely elevated, we Must (capital M) be patient.
Below, I share an updated set of Forward Looking Conclusions on the market.