4/17 Daily Market Note: A Note on Mindset and Frame of Mind during Difficult Sessions
Mindset Note (Very Valuable)
Note: Please read my guide on Intraday Scalping to understand how I operate in this niche timeframe. Below, I continue to share some commentary on mindset. I think that mindset and frame of mind are absolutely essential to navigating choppy markets if one is an intraday player. If you’re a new reader, make sure to join my list.
Hey Folks -
Today was a straightforward session for Bulls if one found the opportunity to participate early and had the right expectations.
Today is a hard session if they participated too late and had the wrong expectations.
In my opinion, Mindset (aka expectations) play a substantial role in our outcomes if we do intraday work.
See my pre-market note here when NQ was trading 17900, I believed that there was an opportunity to scalp towards an upside target for 17940-17970.
It is challenging to provide a directional bias. It is even more challenging to provide what may be the size of the advance/decline ahead of time. However, given the great uncertainty in the landscape, I am doing my best to provide a finer level of detail (but please know that this is definitely not always possible).
Was NQ upside target 17940-17970 reached today? See below.
It is the exact high for this morning, reached right at the opening bell.
There was not one tick higher than 17970 (as of this post).
For intraday players in my Community, this was probably worth its weight in gold. They were done for the day at exactly the day’s highs.
Is it possible to always be this accurate? Of course not. However, I will put in the work, put in my best effort, and do my best to provide what I believe is a roadmap for the session. My plans are most effective early on in the session. This is because the afternoon session typically has a new set of institutional participants joining in.
Like I discussed in my previous note, I trade the same framework/context as discussed in my notes. The plan filled my orders, and we were able to finish before the regular trading session even opened.
Also as discussed yesterday, if my 1-2 setups worked, I am done for the day and I do NOT look for more trading setups. The research time I spend OUTSIDE of the market doing homework and preparation will reflect on how I navigate the market when I’m INSIDE it.
Trust me - you do not want me to do Daily Market Notes on Fridays (this is how I preserve mental capital). You do not want me to see me give multiple updates on WhatsApp beyond the pre-market. You want me as the Community Strategist to have ample time to plan/think/strategize. If I am providing too many messages, it is a sign that I myself am flustered with market context.
When I show up with my messages, I show up with the intention to provide 1 clear roadmap that scores for the team, like we did today, and yesterday, and EVEN on Monday 4/15 (the bloodbath). Less is more.
We have been green this every day this week (and every single day last week), even as the markets have fallen. And during this time, I haven’t taken one bearish position. They have ALL been bullish scalps.
My girlfriend recently told me that “Less is more in trading. If you spend the whole day trading, you’ll be more stressed, more worked up, and have less time to hangout with me.”
I originally got annoyed when she told me that, but after some deep reflection, let me tell you, she is absolutely right about the Less is More part.
Execution in trading is not about hard work. It’s about smart work. The prep work is hard work, not the actual trading itself. My best days, in my intraday account, have been where I am in the market for maybe 20-60 minutes. My worst days are when I spent literally 6 hours in front of the desk and end the day with nothing to show for it.
When the market gets choppy/weak, please do not overtrade. I’ve made that mistake in the past, and I’m determined not to make that same mistake in this journey.
Your mental capital is EQUALLY as important as your investment/trading capital. Mistakes arise when we are flustered.
As for the market - while I can’t say for sure that the Bear Market is returning, I can say that conditions are made much more difficult for bulls. Market participants will need to operate with a higher level of skill to find green in this environment.
I expect the degree of difficulty to increase proportionally with the increase in the 10Y Yield. The higher this long duration rate goes up, the more challenging it will be for bulls.
Once the 10Y Yield gets towards 4.8%-5%, markets will move fast, reversals will come without much warning and stop-loss hunting will be much more aggressive.
Will continue to do research in the background, and show up tomorrow with another game plan.
Do not feel discouraged by soft markets. They come with the cycle.
I sincerely mean it when I say that China’s Bear Market has leveled me up as a market participant. If it wasn’t for China, I wouldn’t have had the urge/need to learnScalping.
What is hard for us now is a blessing in disguise. It is a powerful opportunity for us to grow and advance.
Please share this note with your network. The purpose of my Community is to help more folks.
-Larry