DCF Conclusions on Amazon (AMZN)

AMZN DCF Conclusions Shared

Hi Everyone -

Yesterday evening, I discussed that I will be spending this week and next week focusing on DCF modeling for the Magnificent 7 to better understand the rationale & stability of current levels in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

I sent out a research note on Microsoft’s DCF last night, and today’s note will be focused on Amazon. The stock is a 5.2% component for the Nasdaq-100 and a 3.7% component inside the S&P 500. Along with the other Mag 7, AMZN is a very important stock on my watchlist if I am an intraday operator given its weight.

Before we get into Amazon, I posted another trade recap on Instagram for today’s action, which had the indices range bound. My key level as discussed in our pre-market was 5070 for ES (S&P 500 Proxy), where I remained constructive above this level and cautious below it.

I sold 0DTE Puts 20 points underneath this level from the plan and was fortunately able to capture about 40-50% of the premium evaporation by noon time.

Traders who held it til 4pm saw full premium collection. I was happy with 50% premium evaporation and didn’t capture the full 100%. I erred on the conservative side.

Let’s now talk about Amazon’s DCF conclusions.

Together with NVDA and MSFT’s DCF conclusions, I hope members are beginning to understand why the market is pinned at an elevated juncture and why, for now, reluctant to go lower as the Optimistic Scenario is in play.

When it does go lower though (it will), folks who have done their prep will know what regions of the Mag7 are likely to be bought up.

How? Because DCF + Technical Analysis together brings a new way of viewing the landscape.

Let’s talk more below. Subscribe, share, will continue to share best ideas with folks.