2025 DCF Conclusion Study Update: Tech, the Dow, China, and Macro
Updates to DCF and Macro Commentary
Previous DCF Notes for Reference:
Hey Folks -
It’s time for an update to our DCF Conclusion Studies now that most Big Tech earnings have been completed and analyst estimates have been set for the upcoming quarters. This update will include the most heavily weighted QQQ ETF and DIA ETF stocks. The SPY ETF’s top holdings are essentially the same as QQQ ETF.
We of course await NVDA earnings, so in the coming weeks, I will have an update to the Semiconductor SOXX ETF DCF Conclusion Table. China has reached my Pump Case from my last update in late December 2024. Along with SOXX ETF, I will update China DCFs in coming weeks.
Below, I will share the Tables as well as commentary on how I’m interpreting this information in today’s context.
For a quick conclusion: I am still bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But I am less bullish than before. I believe there is still upside, perhaps to retest recent highs (again). But such upside can reverse due to the choppy macro environment. Reducing exposure at Range Highs to have dry powder to buy back in Mid-Range is likely going to be a good strategy.
In the past, new all time highs constantly led to more all time highs. This time around, repeatedly trimming at all time highs and awaiting some type of pullback appears to be a recurring theme.
For China and the Hang Seng, I believe China’s market is so strong right now that it is actually pulling away capital from the U.S. The parabolic rally seen in HSI is representative of a large reversal from “Long U.S. // Short China”.
With that being said, let’s get into the Bear/Base/Bull Case Values of the most important stocks within the market.