11/9 Daily Market Note: Weak Treasury Bond Auction Sets off First Dip after 8 Winning Sessions

11/9 Premium Strategy Note

Folks-

A new hawkish speech by Powell sparked the first dip for risk sentiment after an 8 day win streak. Added with a softer than expected 30Y Year Bond auction, the Bond market’s rising yields applied pressure across nearly every sector, with the exception of Semiconductors – thanks to NVDA making new chips for the China market. 

This session was a perfect reminder of why level-to-level transactions are so critical and why extreme care in finding relative value opportunities in a stretched market is key to capital preservation and account growth. In the context of a falling market, I’ve been very careful and selective in issuing continuation ideas. Our long ideas in IBKR and AMAT (as well as SMCI for those who like this name) have demonstrated outperformance qualities to defend against a market that may be running out of momentum.  

In this note, I’m going to discuss some longer-term thoughts on the economic landscape. Much of my commentary lately has been trading-oriented. Such guidance has been additive to portfolio alpha/defense. As we approach the weekend, I want to share some brief thinking on related macro themed areas such as Housing, Inflation, and U.S-China geopolitics and will resume commentary next week.